Predictions in general are future-oriented statements which try to anticipate upcoming events or situations but obviously cannot be proved in advance. So a prediction always has a strong element of speculation as built-in weakness. In PR, we mean, of course, also future-oriented statements, but with the more or less clear purpose to position the person who makes the prediction as a trustworthy source. Someone who at least pretends to know something about the future based on their past and present experience automatically claims to be an expert in the field of his predictions.<\/p>\n
Why predictions still attract audiences<\/strong><\/p>\n People have always been and will always be curious about the future \u2013 think of horoscopes and hand-reading and the famous predictions like those of Nostradamus. Hearing something about the future appeals to our uncertainty \u2013 I mean nobody actually KNOWS the future, and of course having some hints about what will come would add some certainty into our daily life decisions.<\/p>\n You see, all the media are writing about the rising uncertainty in our world, but to me this is sheer nonsense: The future has always been unknown and thus mankind has always been living in and with uncertainty. But yes, predictions can be useful<\/a>, especially if a company and\/or their spokespersons want to take a lead position within their industry.<\/p>\n The worth and sense of a prediction, especially in a business context, lies in good balance between the surprise factor and faithfulness to reality.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Both are necessary: You have to predict something unexpected, but no fairy tales that are easy to identify as such.<\/p>\n What makes a prediction meaningful for audiences and media?<\/strong><\/p>\n A relevant prediction must relate to the knowledge and experience, but also to the fears and worst case scenarios of an audience. This is again about balance: What you predict must have roots in what your audience can understand and put into perspective with their own personal expectations.<\/p>\n For instance, if your prediction is aimed at people of the baby boomer generation, you have to think about where they come from cognitively and emotionally, what is their background, how far back do they remember how the world has been and how do they feel about how it is now? This will differ from how an audience of college students feels about these topics \u2013 and how they perceive the value and realism of your prediction.<\/p>\n Regarding the actual message or content of the prediction, and again we are talking mainly about a business context in the widest sense: Your prediction must also be in line with the values, messaging and previous predictions of your organisation. Obviously, in a PR context, you rarely predict just on your own and present just your own thoughts about what might or might not come; you represent your company, your NGO, your public service or whatever organisation it is that you stand for.<\/p>\n Regarding various types of media, for example in social media you should be a bit more courageous or aggressive as the life expectancy of content there is lower than with traditional media. On the other hand, if you use an interview with a journalist to express predictions, I would be double careful to know why you predict the things you predict and on what basis you are drawing your conclusions. As always with journalists, you should be prepared for tough questions and offer the best evidence available to support your statement.<\/p>\n The importance of the sender \u2013 and the future of predictions<\/strong><\/p>\n For the sender as well as the audience, it is important that predictions are clearly credited to a source. As a media recipient, of course I prefer to know who is the sender of any future related statement. Well, OK, if it is some ridiculous or completely foreseeable thing that you predict, I don\u2019t care who said it\u2026 but if there is something in it that makes me read or listen carefully, then it would be good to know where this forecast originated.<\/p>\n As for the future \u2013 and yes, this IS a prediction \u2013 I think people will always be curious about the future, and this won\u2019t change. So it will stay attractive to listen to somebody talking about what\u2019s coming up next, be it in politics, society, science or whatever. But if you take politics as an example, it will be more and more difficult to make meaningful forecasts that are not just platitudes.<\/p>\n As said, I don\u2019t think that our future is less predictable than it was ever before, but people and media perceive it to be so \u2013 and this adds a sense of unpredictability to the actual unpredictability we all have to live with. But maybe exactly that fact makes predictions even more attractive:<\/p>\n A perceived increase in uncertainty will also lead people to even more look out for others who at least claim to know more and offer some certainty.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n So in PR, we will see this tool prosper in the future and maybe more so than ever. Ooops, this was again a prediction. Hope I\u2019m not wrong with it.<\/p>\n Listen to the full PRGN Presents<\/a> podcast episode to hear more on how predictions work well and what Robert sees coming for PR pros and the comms industry:<\/p>\n